Mets 2010 Depth Chart: Beyond Ridiculous

Over the off-season the Mets have managed to vaguely address several needs that were exploited in the previous season and/or opened by players leaving. Jason Bay was signed for 4 years to watch Citifield gobble up his HR opportunities and waddle around in the OF. So LF was addressed. Beyond that the Mets signed a plethora of other players (mainly catchers) to Major and Minor contracts, none of which surpassed $1.25 million for the 2010 season (although some do have incentives). Let’s check out the bizarre madhouse that is the Mets’ depth chart:


What a GIS for 'six headed monster' yields.

Brian Schneider left to become a back-up and the enormo-faced Ramon Castro was traded during the season because the much-worse Omir Santos was deemed better (he also had that one HR off Papelbon, which is the only thing people remember). So, returnees are Omir Santos and Josh Thole (TOE-lee, but I prefer the pronunciation that sounds like ‘soul’ with a lithp…much like Chone /= Shawn). Additions are Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, Shawn Riggans, and Rod Barajas. It should be noted that none of these six catchers are currently starter worthy. There are rumors of Omir Santos being traded since there is apparently a short list of teams dumb enough to desire him (probably for not much in return, but at least we get rid of a catcher). Henry Blanco is pretty much locked in for the backup catcher role since he is capable defensively and his career OBP is higher than that of Rod Barajas, who is the favorite to win the starting job. The consensus is for Coste to mentor Thole down in AAA leaving Santos and Riggans to…? So if Santos is indeed traded then Shawn Riggans gets to enjoy limited appearances at competitive levels. And hope that the training staff sucks as much as it did last year.

First Base
Another problem spot plague by a lack of hitting prowess at a position where it is really damn easy to get a feared hitter. Daniel Murphy is almost a lock to take most of the starts here and despite a down year at the plate he has displayed a beyond average range at the bag (with some mental lapses). He just received some training with the mustachioed Keith Hernandez (MLB’s greatest defensive 1b?) and if he can do a tad better than last season’s offensive numbers he’ll be the Mets’ version of Casey Kotchman (not ideal, but better than the no improvement). Behind Murphy there appears to be another backlog of MLB back-ups. Fernando Tatis is a great bench bat and can fill in at a number of fielding positions, but could nab some starts vs certain types of pitchers (lefties). Of course some seem to think that Mike Jacobs will challenge for the position, which is a bit concerning, because besides power he offers way below average defense and even worse splits against LHPs. Then, in no particular order, there is Nick Evans, who can fill in in the OF also, but is at best a bench player; Chris Carter, the prototypical quad-A guy (power, average), also an OF fill in, but has the fielding prowess of a amputated rhino; Ike Davis, the prospect for 2011, who is still sanding down the edges to perfect his game; and finally Mike Hessman, a career minors masher, who will likely see no time in the Majors with the Mets (once again, pending injuries). Every Met fan and their mother wanted the Mets to go after Russell Branyan (who was magnetized to Cleveland for the 4th time).
An interesting thought is that if the Mets falter too much and Ike Davis breaks out, the Mets will have a variety of serviceable backups to trade to postseason hopefuls. Daniel Murphy could bring a decent return.

Second Base
Who wants Luis Castillo? This was the theme of the off-season. Unfortunately nobody was biting and once again the Mets go into a season with a less than satisfactory 2B. Castillo has steadily gotten slower both on running the bases and guarding them, but he managed to be something of a surprise at the plate (good average, great OBP, still no power). Next in line are Alex Cora and Anderson Hernandez. Cora has better power (marginally, but no starter) and Hernandez is a slightly worse version of Castillo. Alex Cintron was just signed to a minor league contract and is also pretty much useless. There are a variety of minor league utility guys and prospects that could get a sniff of action because I can almost guarantee that one or more of these guys will miss significant time due to injury (oddly, Castillo was one of the healthier Mets in 2009).
A problem with Castillo is his undesirable contract which gives him $6 million the next two years, which presented major issues with the Mets seeking Orlando Hudson. Felipe Lopez is still available (nope, he was just signed in the middle of my writing this to a deal worth less than Cora’s, but incentivized) and at this point his wage demands should have dropped quite a bit and he is an upgrade over Castillo on defense and power (plate discipline is a slight downgrade) not to mention he can take up SS, 3B, and OF. A shrewd deal to bring him in (the Mets have been strangely shrewd lately with small contracts for players seeking more) would make moving Castillo not as urgent and the Mets’ gain in depth is a win for a future trade (plenty of teams have question marks at 2B, even the Phillies who have no set backup for Utley).

Unfortunately the Mets new uniforms were rejected by MLB.

This is an easy one. Jose! Reyes! And his tricky hamstrings! The line of backups is the same as it is for 2B. I should point out that Alex Cora is no where near as bad as he appeared to be last year. Cora suffered from torn ligaments in one of his thumbs, but played through it before he tore ligaments in the other thumb (seriously…freaking training staff). Granted, he isn’t worth the $2 million per year the Mets like to have him for, but it isn’t the worst deal (Castillo!). If Jose remains healthy for the entire season that offers the Mets a full 2-4 WAR over anyone else the Mets currently have.

Third Base
David Wright. He has yet to miss a large chunk of a season during his career, so there is a chance that that could happen (David is slow to pick up on what the rest of the team does). Fernando Tatis actually filled in following Wright’s beaning in the head, but beyond him there are few options providing MLB experience. Russ Adams, Shane Bowman, Andy Green, and Mike Cervenak are the next names in line, but barring a renaissance in offensive abilities, are less than desirable.

The easiest segment of the Mets to plot with Jason Bay in left, Jeff Francoeur in right, and Carlos Beltran in center. Well, a month into the season Beltran should be back. Angel Pagan should be the starter in his place and can actually do quite a good job of it as he showed last season. For some strange reason, Pagan’s appearance in the future lineup has Jerry Manuel contemplating Pagan leading off and Reyes hitting second. Chances are this isn’t the greatest idea. Gary Matthews Jr. was picked up with the Angels so desirous of removing him that they agreed to pay for a little more than 90% of his salary. Unfortunately he had only one good season that was coupled with one phenomenal catch and it translated into the worst contract in recent history. That all means that the Mets have a below average fielder and hitter and will likely give him too much opportunity to show how bad he is. Frank Catalanotto was signed to provide extra depth and can field at a variety of positions, but his best years are behind him and I really wish the Mets had tried to sign him 7 ago. Fernando Martinez should get more seasoning in AAA, but will probably see some time in the MLB before the season ends. At some point in the next couple years he should progress far enough that Bay, Francoeur, or Beltran will be seen as expendable. Nick Evans and Chris Carter can also pop up for appearances along with Jason Pridie and Val Pascucci.

Starting Rotation
Johan Santana is the ace and then it kind of drops off. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey make up the next two spots in no particular order, but they’re more like good options for back end starters on a good team. Oliver Perez can be a #2 when he is on, but that happens less and less and he is more likely to completely blow a game than keep the Mets in it. Jonathan Niese and Fernando Nieve are the favorites to claim the 5th spot and Nieve, in my mind, has the stuff and experience to start the season there. Niese can do with a little more time in AAA and he has the ability to be a very good mid-rotation pitcher. Other hopefuls for that last spot and first call-up when Ollie blows out are Hisanori Takahashi, Pat Misch, Bobby Parnell, Nelson Figueroa, Josh Fogg, and R.A. Dickey. Takahashi came over from Japan and is seen as a bullpen addition, but if he makes the rotation then that points to him succeeding during the pre-season against MLBers. Misch had some success last year, but is more likely slated for long relief. Parnell is better off in the bullpen as he was beyond awful as a starter (in the more than necessary opportunities he was given). Figueroa is another dark horse with decent stuff to get the job done and should be the next option behind Nieve and Niese. I have no idea why the Mets signed Fogg, he has been terrible ever since I can remember. Dickey is a knuckleballer who will likely be called upon if only to confuse an opposing team.

Francisco Rodriguez has the closer role safely taken care of, but the Mets have made a variety of signings that have given them the experience and depth to bridge the gap between starters and F-Rod-o to a more successful degree than last year. Kelvim Escobar has some shoulder issues, but if and when he returns he can be a great 8th inning guy with experience as a starter and a closer. Ryota Igarashi is also an excellent choice for late inning work and appears to be free of Escobar’s injury troubles. Pedro Feliciano is under-appreciated and is a lefty specialist who can turn the most capable of hitters (assuming they bat left) into a worse version of a Mets backup catcher. Bobby Parnell is a good bet to make the pen along with Sean Green who lowered his point of delivery and while neither of them were overly impressive they certainly aren’t the worst options. Hisanori Takahashi, Pat Misch, and Elmer Dessens will hope to gain the long reliever spot. Waiver claim Jay Marshall was a contender for a spot, but due to a pre-existing condition (injury!) the Mets are seeking to void that. Other arms are Jack Egbert, Clint Everts, Travis Blackley, Bobby Livingston, and prospect Eric Niesen.

Jerry Manuel is on thin ice for this season. There are a few guys below him who could step in. Ken Oberkfell manages the AAA Buffalo Bisons and Tim Teufel manages the AA Binghampton Mets. The most appealing in-house candidate is Wally Backman who manages the short season A Brooklyn Cyclones. Backman was in line for the Diamondbacks job in 2004, but a string of financial and legal troubles caused Arizona to push him out. With any luck he’s been able to put all that behind him and fixed all his previous troubles, but if Manuel does go the Mets will probably use one of the coaches (Howard Johnson, David Jauss) as an interim manager before hiring some outside candidate. Bob Melvin, former manager of the Diamondbacks and Mariners, is currently a scout with the Mets.
Incidentally, I just found out that Julio Franco is still with the Mets as he manages their rookie level team in the Gulf Coast League.

General Manager

A Nerd with a Francoeur fetish

Omar Minaya also happens to be on thin ice this season (big surprise). There aren’t too many impressive in-house options should (when?) Minaya be told to go, but Wayne Krivsky, former two year Reds GM, is currently a special assistant to Minaya and no doubt had some influence in the bullpen retooling. The one real up-and-comer is John Ricco, the Assistant GM, and mouth of the team when the whole Beltran knee incident occurred and Minaya was hiding in a closet somewhere. He is apparently a stats and financials guy (yet pushed for the Francoeur trade, weird) and also looks like a nerd. Ricco is the likely option as the Mets won’t want to go through firing a GM and having to eat his salary and refill the front office. There are even rumors of promoting Ricco to GM and “promoting” Minaya to a personnel or player evaluation position.

And there you have it. Muddled? Yes. Deep? More than most. Full of talent? Meh.
Their AAA affiliate, Buffalo Bisons, are going to be loaded though. So winning baseball in Buffalo! Hooray!
How does the rest of the NL East compare? Somewhat better:
The Phillies depth chart is set at each position and there should be a couple worthy candidates for the 5th starter, but you can basically see how the bullpen will pan out. Their weakest hitter is the pitcher and then Carlos Ruiz (unless you face him in the postseason where he becomes other-worldly). Depth could become an issue if they suffer too many injuries, but when has that ever happened?
The Braves are more or less set in the field, but have a few guys who could run through the OF including Baseball America’s #1 prospect, Jason Heyward. Chipper is likely to miss some time and the best bet behind him is Eric Hinske. The starters are more or less set even if Jair Jurrjens misses some time, but the real weak point could be the bullpen. Don’t get me wrong, the Wagner, Saito, Moylan back end is enviable, but the first two are in their late 30s and after those three the skill an/or experience level drops off…severely.
The Marlins have an opening for 1B that will be resolved during the pre-season, but that could mean some growing pains during the season that could hinder them (then again, it’s the Marlins, when has a rookie not succeeded). The rotation can be spotty after ace Josh Johnson, but the ace may be the one to worry about. Last season saw a massive uptick in innings pitched (almost 100 more than the season before in the minors and majors) and could point to a burn-out or injury. The bullpen isn’t completely set and that includes the closer, but there are a variety of options here that they can switch out easily and should they find the right mix it could be dangerous.
Poor Washington. It just doesn’t look good for the Nationals. They have a couple feared hitters (Zimmerman, Dunn) and a few other good ones (Morgan, Willingham, Dukes), but their catching situation is just awful (Pudge has been way past his prime for some time now) and their depth is almost non-existent. Meanwhile, they seem set to go into the season with a group of pitchers who are unable to get many strikeouts (a lot of balls in play points to hoping for good defense) and Stephen Strasburg might be asked to start the season in AAA (until they realize that he is way better than anyone they have). The bullpen has Matt Capps at closer, who I can tell you from last year’s fantasy team, was less than decent the previous year. Beyond Capps there are a few serviceable guys and there are plenty of options, but none of the upside comparable to the Marlins ‘pen.

The Cycle: Mets Play Winning Baseball in 2012!…?

One of my friends has developed a theory that the Mets have fallen into a baseball cycle wherein they advance in the playoffs every 6 years. And a quick look at the past decade gives us no reason to argue otherwise:

2000: 94-68, lose WS to bat-tossing Clemens’ Yanks.
2003: 66-95, low point of sucking.
2006: 97-65, lose NLCS to suddenly hot, crappy Cards.
2009: 70-92, injuries prevent Mets from blowing season late.
2012: ??-??, despite massive success they lose somewhere in playoffs?

Now comes the fun part where I try to picture what the 2012 non-crappy Mets will look like. Fortunately there are a few tools at my disposal to futz around with their farm system and free agents.

Using Cot’s Baseball Contracts we see that the Mets have a few players under contract in 2012 and several more under arbitration. (contracts in millions)

SP: Johan Santana – $24
CP: K-Rod – $17.5 option based on performance (somehow this will probably be enacted, but this contract is just ridiculous)
3B: David Wright – $15.25
Arbitration Players (will be signed, possibly to extended contracts)
OF: Angel Pagan
SP: Mike Pelfrey, Fernando Nieve
RP: Sean Green, Brian Stokes

First up, just looking at what they currently have, I piece together a team assuming they only sign or let go their own players and/or promote prospects. We all know this is very unlike the Mets, but bear with me as this will lay a foundation that I can gradually tear apart.

C: Josh Thole – Has no power, but can hit 1 for 3 every game.
1B: Ike Davis – Has shown promise and power. Could be up for 2011 season. And he can field.
2B/SS: Jose Reyes will probably be re-signed, but the Mets have an odd amount of prospects at SS, so one or two or all of them will be converted to 2b or traded for crap. Jordany Valdespin gets credit as the only actual 2B prospect, but the SS’s in no particular order are Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, and Reese Havens (one of these three would be manning second).
3B: David Wright
OF: The Mets will make the odd decision of re-signing Carlos Beltran to another ridiculous contract, fortunately he will make less than $17mil per year. Fernando Martinez takes one corner. Jeff Francoeur gets signed for 3 years at the stupid lopsidedness of $5, $10, $15. If not then one of the aforementioned SS’s moves to OF.
Bench: Angel Pagan is 4th OF, Nick Evans is a 1B/OF, Daniel Murphy is worthless as a fielder and finds work as DH somewhere else, another one of those SS’s gets a backup infielder job, Jefry Marte is a defensive infielder, Omir Santos is a useless crapbag so pick from Francisco Pena or Rene Rivera, neither of whom may amount to much at all.
SP: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese gets to pitch a full season in the majors!, Oliver Perez is useless and John Maine will get dumped after missing most of any other season he gets signed for, most minds have Jenrry Mejia and Brad “I wish his name was Steve” Holt as the next best arms in the system.

Now pitching for your New York Mets.

RP: K-Rod finishes his stupid contract, Fernando Nieve plays long-man, Brian Stokes and Sean Green stick around until management realizes they aren’t all that great (which means they stay forever), Eddie Kunz and Bobby Parnell fight out for being the other crappy reliever, Pedro Feliciano and/or Pat Misch get to stay around for being lefties (Misch can also play the long game).
Coach: Jerry Manuel is no longer the coach following 2010. New guy will be…flashback to 2000! Bobby V!

The mustache is key.

GM: Omar Minaya has a weirdly impossible stranglehold on the position that he can’t lose unless the Mets go 0-162.

Ok, so we know that the Mets tend to trade away 90% of their prospects. Therefore this team will never exist. Also there will be a few free agency periods for the Mets to massively overpay players. I can assure everyone that that will happen (Matt Holliday is drooling). Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a list of Free Agents leading up to the 2012 season, but many places have lists for 2010 (which is now) and 2011. This team assumes that the Mets will overspend in the next two seasons so that they can’t sign anyone major for 2012.

C: Mauer and Victor Martinez are free agents after next season. Theoretically the Mets could jump the gun and trade their farm system to the Twins right now and use Thole as the backup (unless he is part of the trade). If not they obtain Ramon Hernandez at some point to split time with Thole (and teach him).
1B: Derek Lee and Carlos Pena are also free agents after this season (I’m guessing Pujols will be extended). Going by past signings, Derek Lee is the older, more injury-prone player and therefore the Mets’ next 1B!
2B: There are some rumors about Luis Castillo moving in a three team trade that nets Lyle Overbay. I doubt that will happen, but I do think Castillo might be gone at some point soon (even though he was one of the few healthy starters) and Orlando Hudson will be ours!
SS: Jose Reyes gets re-signed. Or he gets moved with one or more (probably more) prospects for Carl Crawford. If Reyes leaves I think this is one of the few times the Mets develop a prospect far enough that he becomes something useful.
OF: Beltran, Holliday, and Crawford (possibly) are all massively overpaid. Holliday has his last useful (fielding) season in 2012. If not Crawford then Francoeur and Pagan split time.
Bench: Angel Pagan, Nick Evans, Julio Lugo, Jorge Cantu, Josh Thole.
SP: Santana, Pelfrey. Linked with Lackey and Wolf so far this off-season, but those are mistakes waiting to happen…meaning the Mets sign at least one of them. Erik Bedard might be a nice surprise (until he gets injured). Brandon Webb is a free agent after next season, but the Yankees might as well call dibs now. Jon Niese and Jon Garland (surprise crappy pitcher move, akin to Tim Redding experiment) may also have some time in the rotation.
RP: K-Rod, Stokes, Green. Kiko Calero, Scott Shields, and an assortment of in-house options fill out the bullpen.
Coach and GM: Does it even matter? This is destiny! Hooray being slightly less than the best!

Possibility...or the future?

Things That Depress Me

Even though I am gamely employed, I am thoroughly enjoying this baseball season. However, there are a glaring number of things that I really don’t like and actually get me upset. Not UPS worker after 25 years upset but just a little down. Here are some of the things that actually get me kind of depressed.

1) That Carlos Delgado won’t be the Mets first basemen after this year
Long gone will be the days of 15+ million for an average defenese, 27 homer, .220 average, loud mouth road cone at first base. Carlos, you used to be a force to be reckoned with (especially in the Blue Jays days…good lord he was a monster) but now you suck and I’m upset you’re leaving the Mets. You are the number one problem with the Mets and to see you leave will bring a tear to my eye.
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